What Do Albert Pujols' and Prince Fielder's Huge Contracts Mean to Joey Votto?

An outstanding first baseman does not come cheap. You heard me right!

A cursory look at recent deals will lend credence to what I just wrote.  In the past four years, no fewer than six big-name first basemen have signed mega-contracts, ranging in value from $125MM to $240MM. That is huge money - even when you are talking millionaire baseball players.

Joey Votto will be the next elite first baseman to enter the baseball price war. That, officially will not occur until after the 2013 season. Votto is due to be paid $9.5MM this season and it will balloon to $17MM in 2013.

The Cincinnati Reds are not compatible with uber-salaries or winning price wars. They are a small market club and will find it very difficult to keep the 2010 MVP in the Queen City. Owner Bob Castellini will feel like a boa constrictor has wrapped itself around his checkbook when that time comes.

According to Reds GM, Walt Jocketty, talks with the Canadian born All-Star have yet to begin.

What do all of the six signings mentioned earlier have to do with Votto? After all, he is still stationed in Cincinnati until after the '13 season. Even though Votto isn't quite the iconic player that Albert Pujols is, he is still at least on par with, or above Prince Fielder. Yes?

Pujols is a hitting machine with three MVP awards and a Rookie of the Year award as well. Votto has won one MVP award and Fielder has not.

Here is a comparable look at the trio:



Statistical Comparison for Albert Pujols, Joey Votto & Prince Fielder

Pujols is 32 and just signed a bank-busting $240MM contract that will keep him in Anaheim until he is 42. It would seem that would do it for his negotiating career, wouldn't you think?

Fielder, 27 just signed a $214MM deal that will keep him in Motown until he is 36, leaving possibly more time for deals later.

Votto will be 30 when his contract will expire. How much will he want? What will his value be? I'll tell you how much. Whatever the market will bear. Just like card collecting, auctions or other memorabilia exchanges, something may be worth $500K, but if nobody can or will pay for it, it is a moot point.

There is little doubt that will Pujols and Fielder jumping to the Junior Circuit, Votto is heir-apparent to the first base throne. You may just as well pencil him in the starting lineup in the Mid-Summer classic right now. He would appear to be head and shoulders above the competition.

Would it be in the best interest of the Reds' brain trust to attempt to negotiate with their prize possession now? We are looking at a whole bunch of money, not to mention the two years owed to him already.

How about Votto? Do you think he would want to ink a new deal now, realizing he could build a stairway to heaven in two years? Maybe he can and maybe he can't.

If Votto would have a bad year or two, how far down would his value go? If he would appear to be a $20MM/year man right now, and batted .270 or so and only hit 20 HR each of the next two years, what price tag would you put on him then?

This is just food for thought. Keep in mind he is already due to be paid $17MM next season, so what is it worth Mr Castellini?

Adam Dunn signed a huge deal with the Pale Hose in 2011. He received $12MM last year and batted .159 with 11 HR and 42 RBI. He is guaranteed $44MM for the next three years, whether he hits or not. That is good money and I don't care who you are.

Looking at Dunn's portfolio as a benchmark, it could very well entice the young man to listen to what is being said.

According to Ben Nicholson-Smith, the Reds would probably have to offer Votto $187MM+ to keep the slugger in town until he is 36. Again, that is huge money for the Reds and they will be digging farther down the well than they have before.

Can they do it?

Cincinnati Reds Minor Profiles: Down on the Farm with Outfielder Bill Rhinehart

With the winter taking a heavy toll on the farm system, I thought it would be prudent to take a look at what the Reds still have at the Minor League level.

Some names people are familiar with include Billy Hamilton, Yorman Rodriguez, Kris Negron, Henry Rodriguez, Neftali Soto and Denis Phipps.

Of course there are several who are putting up decent numbers and getting very little recognition.

The first one I want to spotlight is outfielder Bill Rhinehart. If the name rings a bell but doesn't seem to complete the circuit of instant recall, he came to the Reds in the deal that sent Jonny Gomes to the Washington Nationals for himself and pitcher Christopher Manno.

Rhinehart is no spring chicken as minor league prospects are concerned. He is a 27-year old power hitting outfielder who was drafted in the 11th round by the Nationals in the 2007 MLB Amateur Draft.

He started with the Vermont Lake Monsters, the Nationals Single-A affiliate. In 60 games as a 22-year old he posted numbers of .299/.377/.453/.830 with 5 HR and 43 RBI.

In 2008 he continued to toil in Single-A at Hagerstown and Potomac before playing the last half of the season for Double-A Harrisburg. In 564 plate appearances that season he hit 18 HR with 89 RBI.

His only stint in Triple-A came with Syracuse in the 2010 season. He only appeared in five games and other than a home run had rather insignificant numbers.

In 2011 Rhinehart began the year at Harrisburg and then when Gomes was traded he was sent to the Reds Double-A affiliate (at the time) Carolina Mudcats. Between the two teams he put up impressive numbers. In 460 PA he batted .284/.377/.565/.942 with a career high 28 HR and 88 RBI.

The left-hander is a converted first-baseman and has actually played twice as much there as in the outfield. So, he could certainly fill in at first in a pinch.

Since the Reds terminated their affiliate with Carolina, they are entering their relationship with the newly born Pensacola Blue Wahoos (you have to love those minor league names).

The Reds are only showing two outfielders on their Louisville roster - Daryl Jones and Felix Perez, so perhaps a move is in store for the Roseville, CA native.

It is hard to gauge a player's minor league development. Double-A seems to be where the players are who still have hope. The Triple-A system is more of a 'shuttle bus' from MLB to the minors.

At any rate if Rhinehart is going to become a major league player, now would be the time to give him a good hard look at Triple-A ball.

Cincinnati Reds Still Dealing - Get Wilson Valdez from Phillies

After a slow start this winter the Reds picked up steam and are continuing to make deals. In a trade that sent pitcher Jeremy Horst to the Philadelphia Phillies, the Reds solidify their bench and infield with six-year veteran Wilson Valdez, according to MLB Trade Rumors.com.

With the addition of pitchers Mat Latos, Sean Marshall, Josh Judy, Kanekoa Texeira, and Jeff Francis it probably wasn't a gut-churner deciding whether or not to rid themselves of Horst. He appeared in only 15+ innings, all in relief in 2011, had no decisions and an ERA of 2.93.

The acquisition of Valdez gives the Reds a solid backup at shortstop behind rookie Zack Cozart. How this fits in with the playing time of Paul Janish is yet to be seen. Valdez can also play second base and third base. He also has a 1-0 record as a pitcher against the Reds. Last year with the Phillies he had a slash line of .249/.294/.341/.634 in 300 plate appearances.

Earlier in the week, the Reds signed veteran utility player Willie Harris to a minor league contract. He spent 2011 with the New York Mets and had a line of .246/.351/.317/.668 in 240 AB. He can play virtually any position other than catcher.

Journeyman southpaw pitcher Jeff Francis was signed to a minor league contract yesterday. The big left-hander comes to Cincinnati with a career record of 61-66 and an ERA of 4.78. He spent the first six years of his career with the Colorado Rockies before going to the Kansas City Royals last season. With the Royals he was 6-16 with a 4.82 ERA in 31 starts.

It is difficult to imagine another signing in the near future. The Reds are probably down to the bottom line on their budget and would probably have to make a trade to get anyone else.

Cincinnati Reds' Mike Leake: The Diamond in the Rough

The Cincinnati Reds have poised themselves to make a strong run at a World Series in 2012. They have beefed up their bullpen to the point of making a starter out of Aroldis Chapman. The Cuban fireballer has been a point of concern and contention since being signed in 2010.

They added "stud" starter Mat Latos from the San Diego Padres. They mortgaged their future for him so let us hope he pans out.

As good as Latos is supposed to be, it still looks like he will take a backseat to Johnny Cueto, who lead the National League in ERA for most of the last half of 2011.

Bronson Arroyo has been the Equus caballus (I will give you a moment so you can look up the name to see it is a workhorse). He is behind only four pitchers in the MLB in games started since 2007. He can be counted on to produce 200 innings per year.

Homer Bailey is the poster boy for not bringing a man to the major leagues too soon. He has been back and forth to Louisville more than a Greyhound Bus. He finally was on his way to a good season and wound up on the DL. Twice! He pitched 13 quality stars in 22 tries in 2011

I have introduced you to five starters who have had their share of ups and downs, have lived in the proverbial petri dish, and who most share the spotlight when it comes to Reds' pitchers.

I would like to put the spotlight on young Mike Leake. The Iceman cometh! No, I don't mean former UFC champ Chuck Liddell.

Mike Leake who just turned 24 in November, is the quiet man in the Reds' rotation. The Fallbrook, CA  native is listed at 6'1", but is far from an imposing specter on the mound.

He began his college stint at Arizona State  as a closer in 2007, and was made a starter later in the year. He was a third team All-American with a 13-2 record with an ERA of 3.69. In his sophomore season of 2008 he was second team All-American and PAC-10 pitcher of the year, going 11-3 with a 3.49 ERA.

In 2009, his junior and final college season, Leake was outstanding. He finished the year with a remarkable 16-1 record with a shining ERA of 1.71. He was a first team All-American, National Player of the Year and National Pitcher of the Year.

He was the Reds first draft pick (eighth overall) in the 2009 Amateur Draft, after his three-year collegiate career.

Leake became one of only a few players to make the jump from college to pro without first becoming seasoned in the minor leagues. Not only did he forego a minor league beginning, he made the rotation out of spring training.

I watched his first start on TV against the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park on April 11, 2010. He showed poise and the ability to work under duress from the get go.

After working himself into a bases-loaded, no outs situation, Leake collected himself.  He got Aramis Ramirez to popup, struck out Marlon Byrd and had Alfonso Soriano to popup as well, getting out of his first inning unscathed.

He pitched 6.2 innings that day, allowed only four hits, one run, struck out five, but allowed seven walks. He didn't factor in the decision but it was a quality start in his big league debut.

Leake went on to have 14 quality starts in his 22 attempts that rookie year. He finished the year with an 8-4 record and an ERA of 4.23. He was sat down by manager Dusty Baker because his IP was a concern after his college career without minor league duty.

He was a member of the starting rotation at the beginning of 2011. After six starts and a 3-1 record Leake was relegated to the bullpen in early May. After being placed back in the rotation Leake showed much improvement. From May 27 until August 10, he had a 7-5 record with an impressive ERA of 3.09 in 14 starts.

During that span Leake had 10 quality starts in 14 attempts.

Another one of Leake's attributes is his ability to hold his emotions in check. He appears almost stoic on the mound. Unlike Bailey, and some others, you can't tell by looking at him if he is up by two runs or down by five.

He has shown to be a strong pitcher who will give you six or seven innings of quality baseball. With the bullpen he has behind him this year, he can leave in the seventh inning and not wonder if the pen will hold them for him.

Among the tall trees and the rough cut stones on the Cincinnati pitching staff there is one diamond waiting to be polished.

2012 Cincinnati Reds' Pre-season Prognostications by Caesar Cliffius

It is still less than two weeks away from Ground Hog day but not too early for Caesar Cliffius to pop-up out of the ground with his pre-season predictions.

We will start with what will surely be the opening day lineup against the Miami Marlins on April 5.

Catcher - Devin Mesoraco. I think he will have a decent, not fantastic rookie campaign. I see him batting .270 with 12 HR and 55 RBI in a 2-1 split of time with Ryan Hanigan.

At first base Joey Votto will continue his quest to be the best in the business. With the yearly All-Star competition at first gone from the National League (Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez and perhaps Prince Fielder) it is time for him to own the position. He will hit 35 HR with 125 RBI and bat .320. With the Reds winning their division and the NL pennant, he wins his second MVP award.

Second baseman Brandon Phillips is playing out the last year of his contract with the Reds. Look for him to show it all in 2012. He will make the All-Star team, bat .295 with 25 HR and 88 RBI.

Third base is a critical position for the Reds success in 2012. If Scott Rolen can stay healthy and punch the clock at least 100 times, the Reds should be able to win and win big. If Rolen can give 100+ games, he will bat .285, hit 23 HR and knock in 75.

Shortstop Zack Cozart will come back big from surgery and have a real good season. He will hit .275 with 10 HR and  score 95 runs.

Left field is a touchy position this spring. Some say Chris Heisey deserves to be the starter, others like myself believe Dusty Baker will see it another way. He will start with experience and trot out Ryan Ludwick in the beginning. Ludwick will wind back the clock - just not all the way back to 2008 when he put up monstrous numbers. He will bat .278 with 25 HR and 91 RBI.

Drew Stubbs still won't have any idea which pitches to swing at and will do the bi-centennial number again. That is right folks -210 strikeouts this season. He will however offset that with a career high 31 HR, score 110 and swipe 65 bases.

Jay Bruce will finally put the season together that everyone knows he is capable of. His strikeouts will drop, his average will raise to .300, he will hit 45 HR (leading the league) and knock in 105.

In a reserve and pinch hitting role Heisey will bat .260 with 20 HR and 61 RBI.

In the pitching department, Johnny Cueto will win 18 games and boast an ERA of 2.30. Mike Leake will surprise everyone by winning 20 with an ERA of 2.88. Mat Latos will be a bit of a disappointment with a record of 12-12 with an ERA of 3.75. Aroldis Chapman will start and be productive at 13-8 with a 3.04 ERA. Bronson Arroyo continues to do the lions share and starts 33 games, winning 16 and losing 10 with an ERA of 3.65

Closer Ryan Madson will get 41 saves, with only three blown saves and boast a microscopic ERA of 1.24.

Wishful thinking? Only time will tell. Write your predictions down and put them on the fridge. We can compare notes in October.

Cincinnati Reds 2012: If Aroldis Chapman Starts, Who Sits?

Since the "Cuban Missile" was signed for over $30M in 2010 his job description has been unclear. His reputation as a flame thrower precedes him everywhere he goes.

He came to Cincinnati with the plan of becoming a starting pitcher. With a full rotation he was used in relief, both long and short. His 12.8/9 strikeout rate is one of the best ever in baseball history.

As this off-season began many people thought that the brain trust would make a closer out of Chapman. But deals were made which soon saw his career as a closer disappear into thin air.

First setup specialist Sean Marshall was traded to the Reds for Travis Wood and Dave Sappelt. Just several days later, free agent closer Ryan Madson was signed, making the bullpen just a little too crowded.

After the Marshall deal, GM Walt Jocketty began making noises that Chapman would now become a starter. So now, where does that leave us?

The Reds now have six pitchers who will apparently be vying for entry into the five-man rotation.

The most effective starter for the Reds last season, Johnny Cueto will most likely start opening day. I would think he would then be followed by newly acquired Mat Latos. Then the picture loses focus and it isn't as clear as it was.

Who goes third, Mike Leak or Bronson Arroyo? Before deciding on the order of the rotation, we should first address who we believe the last three of the rotation will be.

If Chapman is going to start, someone is going to have to sit, unless Dusty Baker would use a six-man rotation. I don't think so.

Cueto and Latos are firmly planted as the new one-two punch. Four men will work to win three positions. Youngster Mike Leake, perennial work-horse Bronson Arroyo, injury-plagued Homer Bailey and now Chapman.

Since 2005 only Dan Haren and Derek Lowe have more starts than Arroyo. Even with health issues in 2011 (mononucleosis) he still managed to 32 games and pitch 199 innings. On the down side he surrendered a league-high 46 home runs last year. He was 9-12 with a 5.07 ERA, after averaging over 15 wins for the previous three years. Only seven pitchers in MLB had won more games during those three years.

Homer Bailey is only 25 but is on the DL frequent enough to make him seem 33. 2011 was Bailey's fifth season in the big leagues and marked the first time he started more than 20 games. He was on the shelf twice last season and had his finest season thus far. He was 9-7 with an ERA of 4.43.

Mike Leake was the Reds first pick in 2009 and made the Reds rotation out of spring training without spending a day in the minors. His innings were limited in 2010 and had to be set down. Last season he 12-9 with a 3.86 ERA.

So, all things equal, or they will be on the opening of spring training at least. If every starter mentioned has a comparable spring training, who will be thrown out of the rotation? My money is on Bailey.

The Reds brought him up too early, but have been patient with him over the years. I don't see him really excelling in the Queen City. At some point in another venue he may be a 20-game winner, but it will not happen here. Do you hear me?

Arroyo is uber dependable. When was his last day off? If he can layoff the gopher ball a little I think he will return to his 2008-2010 form.

Leake is just now revving it up. Great things are going to happen for the 24-year old.

If Chapman can have a spring with good control, he will be the number five starter, knocking Bailey down to a long-relief and spot starter role.

MLB Free Agents: Where Does Ryan Ludwick Signing Leave Chris Heisey?

After the signing of Seth Smith  by the Oakland Athletics it looked like the Cincinnati Reds would be hard pressed to find their elusive fourth outfielder. And the next thing you know Walt Jocketty signs free agent outfielder and former employee with the St. Louis Cardinals, Ryan Ludwick.

A veteran outfielder is what the doctor ordered. Is Ludwick the right man for the job? What does the signing mean in the development of Chris Heisey?

Allow me to express my opinions please. If it was nearly anyone but Dusty Baker doing the lineup writing, I would say Heisey will be in left field and Ludwick will be his able replacement.

However Baker is not cutout to deal with young players - generally. That being said, you can count on Ludwick being the left fielder until he goes down with some type of injury.

Another reason he will not take a back seat to Heisey is the fact that he is right-handed as well and can't hit lefties very well either. He does, however hit them about 57 points better than his soon-to-be understudy.

In fact, Ludwick hits right-handers better than lefties - just like Heisey. That being said, any shouts for "platoon" should be soon squelched. Why would you bring in a guy with the same hitting deficiency?

A first look at the two reveals that Heisey hits homers more often, but he also strikes out more. Basing their career performances on 162 game seasons, Ludwick gets 50 more hits than Heisey - 141 to 91. Surprisingly Ludwick smacks more round-trippers as well 24 to 19.

I realize that their lengths of career are far apart. I also realize that much of Ludwick's stats are blown up by his over-achieving year of 2008. He had a MVP type year although he finished in 16th place in voting. His numbers that year were .299/.375/.591/.966 with 37 HR and 113 RBI. He also scored 104 runs.

He had a decent 2009 but after that his statistics dovetailed each year.

The OPS+ of the two are nearly identical with Ludwick squeaking out a slight edge of 110 - 108.

So, whom would you play, keeping in mind that it looks like the Reds are "all in" for 2012?

Would you go with 33 year-old Ludwick whom you just paid $2.5M with incentives topping it off at $3M, or 27 year-old upstart Chris Heisey who still hasn't learned how to hit left-handers? Did I tell you that Heisey is basically being paid minimum wage, approximately $419K?

Ludwick has only signed a one-year deal with Cincinnati, and he is one of the "good ol' boys" from Jocketty's days as Muckety Muck for the Cardinals.

In my opinion Heisey will be lucky to have the 308 plate appearances he had in 2011.

If Scott Rolen Is Healthy, Can the Cincinnati Reds Win NL Pennant in 2012?

 

Scott Rolen has had what many people call a borderline career in respect to the Hall of Fame. Can you name a better defensive third baseman in the past 15 years?

Who was that? Adrian Beltre you say?

No, Beltre won three Gold Gloves in his 14 year career thus far.

Since 1998 Rolen has won eight of the 14 handed out in the National League. Eric Chavez of Oakland won six in a row from 2001 to 2006, but he is the closest comparison you could make using Gold Gloves as the standard.

As an offensive player Rolen is very dangerous. Over his career using 162-game averages he has hit 26 HR and driven in 104. His career slash line is .282/.366/.394/.860.

Whether you consider him Cooperstown material is moot at this point. The intangible asset known as team leadership is immeasurable. Rolen leads by example. He is widely respected by his teammates and his clubhouse presence is priceless.

The biggest problem he has had to deal with is his body. In 2010, Rolen's first full season with the Reds, he was healthy enough to play in 133 games as he lead his club to a Central Division title and his sixth appearance on an All-Star team. He batted .285.  hit 20 HR and drove in 83.

It was his longest season since 2006 when he played 142 games for the St. Louis Cardinals.

2005 and 2011 are the only two seasons in which he played less than 100 games. He only appeared in 65 games last year and started in only 60 of those. When he is not in the lineup the Reds suffer.

The question is can his 37 (when the season starts) year-old body stand the rigors of a 100+ game season? He has had more surgeries and been on the shelf more than "Medical" Bill Cartright.

In my estimation he will need to play at least 125 games for the Reds to do optimum damage to the NL Central Division. The Reds have "adequate" backup at the hot corner with youngster Juan Francisco and journeyman Miguel Cairo. Francisco has ultimate power but resembles Willy Mo Pena a little too much to suit me. Cairo is steady but quiet and unassuming.

His "presence" is needed nearly as much as his bat. If he can limit his time on the shelf to maybe one 15-game stint the Reds are in good shape. He will go down at some point - that is a given. But I believe the Reds could weather one round of the Disabled List for Rolen.

There is a heavy supporting cast around him with plenty of power and speed. Jay Bruce and Joey Votto supply the power from the left side of the plate and Drew Stubbs, Brandon Phillips and Chris Heisey from the right side.

2012 will be an interesting year for Cincinnati. They have the pitching to hold the opponents down and a potent offense to put the runs on the board. The biggest "if" of all is the health of Scott Rolen.

MLB Manager Rumors: Is 2012 the Last Year in Cincinnati for Dusty Baker?

Dusty Baker has been with the Cincinnati Reds now for four years and is in the last year of his contract. Of those four years, only one has been a winning season. That was 2010 when the Reds won the Central Division and were thrown a no-hitter by Phillies' Roy Halladay.

Overall in four years, Baker's record with the Reds is four games under .500 at 322-326. Coincidentally that is the exact record he had with the Chicago Cubs before moving to ESPN.

In 18 years he has won four divisional titles and one National League pennant.

So I would like to present you with a big question. Do the Reds have to win not only the Central Division flag, but the National League pennant as well, in order to keep his job?

Don't answer just yet. Let's talk for a moment, you and I.

Baker has always supposedly been a players' manager. It is difficult to find a definition for that moniker in the Webster's Dictionary.

Since becoming a manager back in 1993 with the San Francisco Giants, Baker has shown a proclivity to favor the veteran player over the youngster, at times seemingly without regard to the output. This definitely has been the case in Cincinnati.

There is nothing wrong with showing veterans respect, however it should be measured with a dash of statistics. Last year he showed that frequently in the left field quandary, continuing to play veterans Jonny Gomes and Fred Lewis over power-hitting youngster Chris Heisey.

I also noticed the tendency Baker has to not play the "hot hand". For example if a man got four hits in one game, logic would dictate starting him the next game, yes? That is not the practice of Baker.

According to beat-writer John Fay it may not matter whether he wins it all or not. When asked the same question I posed to you earlier, Fay said, "Without question. Even if he does, I don’t think it’s a lock he’s back. The Reds didn’t make David Bell the manager at Louisville because they wanted Rick Sweet to work with catchers."

A reader can interpolate that statement two ways. First, he could think that the Reds wanted Bell to get his feet wet at AAA - Louisville before coming to the Reds. Alternatively it could be construed as saying that the Reds moved successful Louisville manager Rick Sweet for a season to work with catchers prior to coming to Cincinnati. Who knows?

I do know that the success of Rick Sweet should not go unnoticed. He is the franchise leader at Louisville in career wins with 466.

At any rate, I am sure Baker can hear the footsteps behind him. If that would not be incentive enough, nothing would.

Fans have been hyper critical of Baker in the last few seasons. His constant chewing on toothpicks becomes easy fodder for sports writers to load up on.

One thing is for sure, he has the pitching staff that should be superb. He has a good to very good offensive club and probably one of the best defenses in the major leagues.

Win it all, or it has been nice knowing you Dusty.

What are your thoughts?

MLB NL Central Division: Why the Cincinnati Reds Are Now the Best

 

In an off-season that began slowly, GM Walt Jocketty of the Cincinnati Reds pulled off probably the best deal of all. Keith Law of ESPN.com writes,

"The Cincinnati Reds got perhaps the deal of the offseason so far by signing Ryan Madson to a one-year, $8.5 million deal, a guaranteed contract that allows Madson to try to demolish any concerns about his ability to handle the ninth inning on a full-time basis and re-enter the free-agent market next winter."

The signing of Madson was the cherry on top of the Hot Stove Sundae. Bringing in Madson solidified the bullpen and will allow Dusty Baker to utilize newly acquired southpaw Sean Marshall as the setup man.

Francisco Cordero had been the Reds' closer since coming over from Milwaukee prior to the beginning of the 2008 season. In his four years with the Reds he saved 150 games, had an ERA of 2.96 and his k/9 ration was 7.6.

In 2011 the Reds were eight in the National League with 22 blown saves.

Before acquiring Marshall from the Chicago Cubs, Jocketty had unloaded nearly all of his blue chips for Mat Latos from the San Diego Padres. Only time will tell if that deal was worth the cost. Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Edinson Volquez and Brad Boxberger all went west so the Reds could add a quality starter to their rotation.

The infield of Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Zack Cozart and Scott Rolen make for one of the best in the business. If Cozart bounces back from Tommy John surgery, and Rolen can stay healthy enough to play 100 games the Reds should excel. Rookie catcher Devin Mesoraco should get the chance to become a starter and prove that all the hype was right.

The outfield of Chris Heisey, Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce could produce 90 HR and 550+ strikeouts.

With the Brewers losing first baseman-slugger Prince Fielder, and facing a possibility of starting the season without MVP Ryan Braun for 50 games leaves alot of question marks. The Reds would appear to be better at almost every position, and would also have a comparable rotation and a better bullpen.

With St. Louis losing perennial all-star Albert Pujols, the Cardinals have put a huge hole in their lineup. Lance Berkman will fill in admirably for Pujols at first base, but face it, he is not  Pujols.

The Cardinals did bring in free agent outfielder Carlos Beltran, late of the San Francisco Giants. Since 2008 his power has dropped considerably. He is averaging only 22 HR per 162 games since then.

Adam Wainwright is expected to return this season and give the Cards a 1-2-3 punch of himself, Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia. I would have to say the Reds would have a slight edge in the rotation as the Cards get thin after Garcia. Kyle Lohse had a good season in 2011 but the Reds can counter with either Bronson Arroyo or Mike Leake. The bullpen belongs to Cincinnati.

The Chicago Cubs have improved their pitching getting southpaws Paul Maholm and Travis Wood. Their addition of one time closer Manuel Corpas didn't give them much help at the end of their bullpen. They had to give up setup man Sean Marshall to get Wood from the Reds. Carlos Marmol is still considered to be their closer and Kerry Wood's 2012 home is still a mystery.

They gave up slugger Aramis Ramirez to the Milwaukee Brewers for Casey McGehee which on face value does not look like a smart move. Legal problems could cause them problems at shortstop with Starlin Castro being involved in a sexual assault matter. Their best bet to make them have any contention for a division championship would be to sign Fielder who remains a free agent.

The Pirates continue to chase the brass ring. After a surprising first half to the 2011. They didn't re-sign Maholm but did get free agent lefty Erik Bedard. They brought veteran center-fielder Nate McLouth back from the Braves as a fourth outfielder, or perhaps a corner outfielder. I do not look to see them make much noise in 2012.

The bottom-feeding Houston Astros are chillingly barely breathing. You can't feel a pulse but if you put a mirror beside their mouth it does seem a little foggy. About the only sounds they have made have been the minor-league contract signing of outfielder Travis Buck.

The remaining faces on the no-name team are Carlos Lee, Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers. It is unlikely they will create any disturbance to the upper echelon of the Central Division.

My predicted order of finish:

1. Cincinnati

2. St. Louis

3. Milwaukee

4. Chicago

5. Pittsburgh

6. Houston

MLB Free Agents: Cincinnati Reds Keep Watching as the List Dwindles

Paul Maholm was just signed by the Chicago Cubs according to MLB Trade Rumors.com.  He is probably the last of the decent starting pitchers of the affordable persuasion.

We, as Reds fans go through this on a consistent and continual basis. The Reds are a small-market team, yadee, yadee, yada. Sometimes you have to squeeze the proverbial blood out of the turnip.

Maholm was signed for one year at $4.75M. If the Reds couldn't afford that for an end-of-the-rotation starter, they should just play with what they have.

The Reds still haven't found a suitable left-fielder although Walt Jocketty is said to still be dealing. Let's look at what is left. It resembles the table scraps at Aunt Bertha's Thanksgiving table at 5:30. Not much lean meat there.

Cody Ross, Pat Burrell, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, the list goes on but gets no better. Burrell, Ludwick and Ankiel appear to have shot their wad already, leaving Ross standing alone. He is capable but not a name that makes you want to jump up and fist bump the wife. He has good power, can play all three outfield slots and wouldn't come with a super-star contract.

Seth Smith is a name that has been bandied about over the hot stove. Unbeknownst to many Reds fans, he is said to have been a pawn in a move that would have sent him to Tampa Bay. Apparently the Rays had no real interest in Smith, as they were going to "flip" him to the Reds for catcher, Ryan Hanigan.

How would that have been swallowed by the Reds' faithful?

In my opinion Smith, 29  is a capable player with average power. He averages 17 HR for 162 games. That is mediocre at best for a corner fielder. He doesn't strike out much, only averaging 17 strikeouts in 100 AB.

His .275 career average is better than any of the Reds existing outfielders.

But at what price would he have arrived in the Queen City? Letting an able-bodied catcher like Hanigan go when your best backup hope is Corky Miller is frightening.

I think a straight trade, Hanigan for Smith is a good deal for everyone, but not after letting Ramon Hernandez walk to Colorado, and then sending Yasmani Grandal to San Diego.

Since the "affordable"  starting pitchers have essentially been taken, and the outfield pickup looks like it will be a dud, let us look toward the bullpen.

The Reds are apparently now interested in veteran reliever Kerry Wood. He is all but done in the Windy City, according to Dave Kaplan of  CSNChicago.com. The Reds however, are still dealing with closer Francisco Cordero. There is no way the Reds will sign both pitchers. Jocketty said he will know about Cordero one way or another this week.

If Cordero is not signed and the Reds do sign Wood, it could make for an interesting scenario. Sean Marshall was recently signed by the Reds as either a setup man or a closer. Both he and Wood were setup men in Chicago in front of closer Carlos Marmol.