Joey Votto's Contract Will Not Be Extended but Brandon Phillips Will

Let us play franchise owners for a moment, you and I. Let us say you have two very good or great players (depending on whom you ask).

The one player (cough, cough Votto) plays a position that is saturated with good talent and long ball hitters. The other plays a middle infield position yet hits like an outfielder.

You are in a small market (let's say the Yankees are Wal-Mart and you are Food City). With your payroll currently around $80+MM you don't have a lot of room to expand the horizons.

Your infielder is arguably the best in the National League, perhaps all of baseball. You don't have a truly bona fide backup in your farm system who could make an immediate impact.

Your first baseman is a former MVP who has the same agent (Dan Lozano) who represents Albert Pujols, late of the second biggest contract in MLB history. You have at least one, maybe two players you feel confidently that could contribute fairly soon.

The one contract will expire after this year, the other next year. You only have money enough to make an attractive deal to one. What to do?

Okay, let's quit playing and talk now. Joey Votto is the better hitter for sure, and he knows it. His agent is going to be seeking every dime he can get, as evidenced by the Pujols covenant.

He is also the more easily replaced of the two. There is not money enough in the coffers to finance both incomes.

Brandon Phillips will not be easily replaced. He now makes about $11MM and change. Dan Uggla makes approximately $13MM and ex-king of the hill Chase Utley brings in upwards of $15MM. There is a ceiling!

The money it will take to maintain Votto is astronomical. The first basemen of his caliber and above are making late-night TV hosting money. Pujols is knocking down $25MM per year for one decade.  Prince Fielder signed with the Detroit Tigers for $23.8MM per annum for nine years.

Statistical comparisons with the three slugging first basemen shows Votto to be the meat in the sandwich. So, he  realistically could be looking for $24-25MM. That is serious money to be talking about a man in his fifth full MLB season.

Votto stands to make $17MM in 2013 and if the Reds sign him to a seven year deal it could well cost them $187+MM. That is including the $23.5MM the Reds owe him for 2012 and 2013. That assessment was taken from MLB Trade Rumors.

Phillips is basically playing for donuts in comparison. We are talking Jimmy Fallon money to Conan O'Brien.

If the Reds wait to barter with Votto in his FA year (2013) it will probably be too late.

You do what you want, Mr. Franchise Owner, but I will sign Phillips and keep him smiling, and try to make a deal with another team for Votto. He is a Canadian, perhaps the Reds could get him for Jose Bautista? That deal was echoing through the pipes last summer.

What would you do?

Aroldis Chapman Will Be the Cincinnati Reds' Fifth Starter

If John Fay knows something we don't, Aroldis Chapman may very well be the No. 5 pitcher in the Cincinnati Reds'pitching rotation.

According to a tweet by Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, "Castellini visited Jocketty in the GM box right after Chapman's outing. Got to think he wants Chapman in the rotation."

Now I perfectly understand that this means little, but it does give the Chapman for Starter campaign a bit of a thrust.

Fay has seen things first hand at Goodyear, most of us have not. He has heard things muttered that we have not.

Something else about the tweet—if Castellini, the owner of the Reds, wants Chapman in the rotation, don't you think there is a strong chance that he will start the season there? I mean the Cuban's $30 million-plus is coming out of his deep pockets, after all.

The rotation debate is centered around two pitchers—Chapman and Homer Bailey. Chapman has enjoyed an outstanding spring, while Bailey has done his best to get his ERA into double digits.

Chapman is 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA with 18 Ks in 17 innings pitched. Bailey is 1-2 with an ERA of 7.98 and has a WHIP of 1.84.

I will agree with those who say Bailey usually has a bad spring. That being said, don't you think he should be doing his very best while he is in the fight for his life as a starter?

Chapman, the only lefty with a serious shot at the rotation, would be a nice change from the otherwise all right-handed group. Being bombarded with an all left-handed hitting lineup is monotonous and absolutely no fun to observe.

The fallout being experienced by the Reds' pitching staff this spring has necessitated some re-thinking of plans.

Ryan Madson was scheduled to be the closer for the team, but has experienced a season-ending injury that will require surgery. Setup man Nick Masset will begin the season on the shelf. Bill Bray has pitched little due to his health issues.

Some have called for Chapman to be the closer, but anyone with baseball acumen should see that Sean Marshall is the most qualified for that position.

I see Bailey being thrown to the bullpen, and Chapman starting the fifth game of the season. It's hard to imagine how it will progress from there, but that would be a good starting point.

Chapman is the hardest thrower in MLB history and has done all he was asked to do.

It looks like Chapman's time has come.

MLB Trade Rumors: Paul Janish from Cincinnati Reds to the Philadelphia Phillies?

The Philadelphia Inquirer has reported that the Phillies have had talks with the Redsabout a possible trade for shortstop Paul Janish. It wasn't reported as to whom the Phillies would offer in return for Janish.

I know that doesn't sound like a blockbuster, but I believe Janish going to Philadelphia would be an advancement for his career.

He has had a very good spring, albeit probably a little too late. His spring slash line is .306/.405/.500 with one homer and five knocked in.

It is evident that rookie Zack Cozart will be the starting shortstop, at least until the maturation of speedster Billy Hamilton.

The Reds have Wilson Valdez who coincidentally was traded to them by the Phillies in exchange for southpaw pitcher Jeremy Horst. Valdez is much more versatile and more experienced than Janish.

Janish will in most likelihood be optioned to Triple-A Louisville at the close of spring training if he remains within the Cincinnati organization. Although he is enjoying his best spring, he has had a few opportunities to step up and be the regular shortstop.

The Phillies have been snake bitten with injuries to their infielders, making them desperate for help in that area.

It is unclear how the Reds intend to respond to the trade talks.

2012 Spring Training: Is This Scott Rolen's Last Dance?

Let me preface this piece by saying that I am a huge Scott Rolen fan. I think he is one of probably the five best defensive third-basemen in MLB history.

He has had a career that is certainly worthy of a close look for the Hall of Fame. The eight-time Gold Glove winner has fashioned a career that is offensively better than the great Brooks Robinson. Of course Robinson has 16 Gold Gloves (all consecutively), however he has played seven more years than Rolen.

Keep in mind as well that Robinson played primarily in an era where there were fewer third-basemen to choose from. I am not attempting to diminish his prowess, merely stating the obvious. He would have won if there were 20 teams in the league. He was that good with a glove.

Injuries have proved to be his undoing. Last season he only was able to play 65 games and it hurt the Reds. He did land a spot on the All-Star team, however that was due to injuries to other players.

If healthy, Rolen could provide the Reds with a solid season. Realistically he could hit 20-25 homers and bat over .280. Some causes for concern scream to me.

"I feel good, without a doubt," Rolen said. "We're at the point where I want to stay feeling good. I'm not going to jam as many at-bats as I possibly can in, in a panic situation before Opening Day. I want to stay fresh and stay healthy to start the season."

Doesn't that sound strange? A man so fragile in his own mind, that he has to basically forfeit spring training to be fresh on opening day. That is tantamount to a boxer being afraid to spar because he doesn't want to get hurt before the big fight.

If it works, God bless! I realize that spring training is for the rookies to shine and the veterans to shake off the rust. It just seems weird for someone to come out and say it.

Just like his colleague Chipper Jones, I am afraid the light at the end of the tunnel is nearer than he suspects. Jones should just retire before the season starts and be done with it. What has he to prove? He won't hit 500 dingers, and he doesn't need to. His career has Hall of Fame written all over it.

The same cannot be said for Rolen. He will need to twist and turn and be hung out to dry in his quest for baseball's Holy Grail. He may not get their on the first ballot, but I am confident he will be enshrined.

Unless he finishes 2012 injury free and plays 125+ games, he should just ride into that sweet night. Or, as many before him, he could become a coach on the Reds team and give Juan Francisco some expert tutelage.

I will always be a Rolen fan. Please understand, I am not here to bury Rolen, but to praise him.   - Caesar Cliffius.

With Ryan Madson Out The Cincinnati Reds Pitching Staff Is In Turmoil

Well, maybe turmoil is a strong word but it does draw your eye.

Losing a pitcher of Ryan Madson's status and qualifications is a huge deal for the Reds' braintrust. Dusty Baker and Walt Jocketty can shrug their shoulders and act like it is all going to be okay, but I see them acting differently in solitude. Maybe even a little cowardly lion action, "I do believe in spooks, I do, I do."

Do the Reds have a very good pitching staff? I thought so before everyone laced them up at Goodyear. Out of all those auditioning for a job, Aroldis Chapman, Jeff Francis and Sean Marshall are the ones who stand tallest.

With the sudden news of Madson's season ending surgery, the Muckety Mucks in Queen City will have to go back to the proverbial drawing board and devise another plan.

Will the closer be Marshall? Could it be Chapman? How about Nick Masset? Money is on Marshall, who appeared to be the heir apparent upon Madson's departure after this season.

These are the questions just for the end of the bullpen. How about the starters?

Of the five pitchers who most had predicted would be rolled out as the rotation, only two have ERA's below 5.73 this spring. Mat Latos is pitching brilliantly and has a 2-0 record with a 1.93 ERA. The suspected opening day starter Johnny Cueto is struggling with a 4.50 ERA.

The other three, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake and Bronson Arroyo are pitching like it doesn't matter. Meanwhile Francis has an ERA of 2.77 and has yet to walk a batter in 13 innings and has a sparkling WHIP of 0.92.

And while we are at it. what shall become of Chapman? The Cuban flame thrower is out-pitching everyone and one would think he has earned a spot in the rotation. Bailey has been hit like he stole something and is doing his best to keep his ERA below 8.

Some would like to see Chapman as the closer, some would just like to see him in the bullpen. I, on the other hand would like to see him get his shot.

So, who do you think will join the team in Cincinnati April 5? I think Bailey is out of options, so you can bet he will be there. Arroyo makes too much money to flush it down the commode in Louisville. Leake is young, resilient and is having a very bad spring. He has options, what to do?

Sam LeCure will not make it this spring. Look for Francis to accompany the team to Great American Ball Park. Logan Ondrusek, Bill Bray, Masset, Jose Arredondo will also go to Cincinnati. Marshall will start the year as closer. You don't see a plethora of southpaw closers, but do you remember Billy Wagner?

The five men who were predestined to form the rotation will do just that. Chapman will be a late reliever, setup style. Francis will be the long reliever and troubleshooter if (actually when) one of the starters goes down or stumbles.

What looked like one of the better pitching staffs in MLB has turned into a dog and pony show. You pick the dog and the pony.

2012 Spring Training: Reds' Jeff Francis Will Take Sam LeCure's Job

 

The signing of southpaw Jeff Francis to a minor league contract may have been just a footnote in the off-season journals of most Cincinnati Reds fans. They may have dismissed it as a futile attempt to revive a career that looked disheveled.

The big 31-year old pitcher didn't look at it that way. He came to Goodyear to win a seat on the Reds bench, and I believe he is going to get one.

He has averaged starting 29 games per season since beginning his MLB career with the Colorado Rockies. His 39 walks was the fourth best in MLB pitchers last season with at least 180 innings. So, obviously control is not an issue.

In four appearances thus far he has an ERA of 2.77, which is at least a run and a half better than any other starting pitcher. His WHIP is a microscopic 0.92 and he has 8 SO in 13 IP and has yet to walk a batter.

I realize spring training is a time for players to work out their kinks and get themselves in shape for the upcoming season. At the same time, it is impossible not to catch the eye of someone who is performing better than most.

Sam LeCure who has been with the Reds the past two campaigns, is not fairing well at all this spring. As is the case much too frequently, LeCure is pitching like a man convinced he has nothing to prove.

Lecure who will be 28 in May is having an atrocious spring. His ERA is almost in double digits and his WHIP is 2.19. Batters are hitting him like Ted Williams and he has given up 17 of them in only eight plus innings.

Even though he has been the designated spot starter and long relief man the past two seasons, he would be a fool if he couldn't hear Francis' foot thuds behind him.

The Reds bullpen is too thick to have two people start the season as possible starters. In my opinion, Francis will be that man who will join the team in Cincinnati.

LeCure has never performed well enough to be considered the "go to" guy. He is a good Triple-A pitcher and a mediocre MLB pitcher at best.

Francis on the other hand, averaged 15 wins a season from 2005-2007. He pitches into the heart of the game and with the bullpen the Reds possess, he could be very valuable. The fact that he is left-handed doesn't hurt anything either. I realize Aroldis Chapman is a southpaw as well, and is enjoying a very fine spring, but he will probably be honing his skills at Louisville, come opening day.

The value of a long relief man need not be minimized nor trivialized. When a starter blows up early, as they at times do (see Bronson Arroyo and Edinson Volquez) it is good to know you have an innings eater who can come in and settle things down.

Keep in mind this is Dusty Baker running the show, need I say more?

2012 MLB Spring Training: Chris Heisey, Ryan Ludwick - Does Anone Want To Play LF?

[caption id="attachment_163" align="aligncenter" width="300" caption="Photo Courtesy of ESPN"][/caption]

It is now just past the ides of March and if anyone should beware it has to be Chris Heisey. With the left-field position clearly up for grabs, he doesn't seem to be reaching very high to grab it.

In 11 games he is just hitting .115 with two runs knocked in and 12 strikeouts in only 26 AB. You would think he was a man who knew his position was in his back pocket. Not so my friends.

If there was ever a time when he needed to flex this is it. Many, including myself believe that the job is actually Ryan Ludwick's to lose. He too is playing as though it matters not.  He is batting just .190 with an RBI and seven strikeouts in 21 trips to the plate.

So we Reds fans watch and flinch with the dismal offensive performance of this spring training corps. Does anyone want to play left-field?

Todd Frazier is currently supplying the only power to this group with three balls sent sailing. He can play left field, although third base is where he belongs. Too bad there, because Scott Rolen is going to start and Juan Francisco will be the backup. Two reasons for this assumption - first, he is the only left-handed batter on the bench, and second because he is out of options.

So if you would swing Frazier to left, that would leave Heisey and Ludwick to play backup. With the rest of the talent that the Reds want to take back to Cincinnati, somebody just named is not going to be a part of it.

You can rest assured it won't be Ludwick, at around $2.5MM he is far and away the most well paid of the three. I believe Heisey and Frazier both still have options so I would look for one of them to start the season at Triple-A Louisville.

At this point Heisey's only saving grace is that he can play all three outfield positions.

While I say that, let me add this. Denis Phipps, who is listed as a right-fielder, is the only outfielder fighting for a position, who is hitting the ball with any authority at all. He is batting .360 with 1 HR and 3 RBI. He is only striking out about 25 percent of the time which is exceptional for this outfield.

If you have been following the Reds since the arrival of Dusty Baker, you know of his proclivity for using veterans. The only true veteran in this ship is Ludwick. Ergo, in my humble, oh so humble opinion, I will tell you that Ludwick will be your starting LF and if Heisey doesn't start hitting soon he will start the year wearing a purple Bats uniform.

MLB 2012 Spring Training: Predicting the Reds 25-man Roster

 

The Cincinnati Reds made some serious off-season moves to allow them a good shot at a division crown or at least a playoff berth.

Spring training is under way and there are many players in Goodyear, Arizona all competing for a spot on the 25-man roster that will be headed to Cincinnati for the start of the season.

Some on the list will be obvious, while others are on the bubble and will continue to float along or burst.

Let me start this list by giving you the obvious choices which should be expected by almost all Reds fans: Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, Ryan Ludwick, Drew Stubbs, Jay Bruce, Devin Mesoraco, Ryan Hanigan, Chris Heisey, Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Ryan Madson and Sean Marshall.

That list is comprised of 16 players meaning there are nine bubbles which will float on to Cincinnati while the others will go to Louisville, one of the other minor league squads, or sent walking.

 

Starting off the list for the remaining 11 we have Zack Cozart. The 26-year-old shortstop was drafted in the second round of the 2007 amateur draft by the Reds. Cozart has paid his dues, doing four-plus years in the farm system prior to being called up for 11 games last year before his season was ended by injury. He made an immediate impact for the Reds and the shortstop position is his to lose.

 

Wilson Valdez was acquired between seasons in a deal which sent pitcher Jeremy Horst to the Philadelphia Phillies. Valdez, 33, has played six years in MLB and is now on team number seven. He is very versatile and has played everywhere except first base and hasn't caught a game. He even pitched one inning last year for the Phillies. His versatility cannot be overlooked along with his experience. His acquisition will most likely send Paul Janish to begin the season at Louisville.

 

Miguel Cairo, 37, is starting his third season in a Reds uniform. He is a favorite of manager Dusty Baker and with his versatility and ability to play most positions will keep him on the roster. In his time at Cincinnati he has put together a line of .276/.340/.411/.751 with 12 HR.

 

Power-hitting Juan Francisco, 24 has been in the Reds organization since signing as a free agent in 2004. He has been playing professionally for six years and has been considered the heir-apparent at third base when Scott Rolen hangs up his glove. Some may wonder why he should be considered over Todd Frazier. I can offer two very good reasons. The first is that he is out of options and Frazier is not. The second is that Francisco bats left-handed and will most likely be the only lefty off the bench for pinch hitting. In 81 games over three seasons, Francisco has produced this line: .284/.331/.450/.781 while hitting five homers, including one that went over 500 feet.

 

Logan Ondrusek, 27, was drafted by the Reds in the 13th round in 2005. The tall reliever pitched five seasons in the minors before being called up to stay in 2010. His strikeout ratio is 6.0/9 and his k/bb ia 1.67. His WHIP is 1.267, has an ERA+ of 116 and a GB rate of 48.4.

 

Southpaw Bill Bray, 28, came to the Reds in the 2006 deal  that saw the Reds send Austin Kearns to the Washington Nationals. He has been pitching for the Reds for five years and missed almost the entire 2009 season due to injury. He has been a very solid performer and in his five years he is averaging a strikeout an inning and his K/BB ratio is 2.54. His WHIP is 1.328, has a GB rate of 48.4 and an ERA+ of 118.

 

Nick Masset, 29, came to Cincinnati in 2008 in the deal that saw Ken Griffey, Jr. move to the Chicago White Sox. In his four years with the Reds he has become their most trusted setup man. He has a K/9 rate of 8.5 and his K/BB is 2.45. His GB ratio is 49.8, his WHIP is 1.261 and is ERA+ is an excellent 134.

 

Jose Arredondo, 27, was signed in 2010 as a free agent. In his only year with the Reds, the Dominican had a K/9 rate of 8.2 and an ERA+ of 122. His GB rate is 46.2

 

Sam LeCure, 27 was a fourth-round draft pick of the Reds in 2005. In his two years with the Reds parent team he has a strikeout rate of 7.9/9 and a K/BB of 2.39. He only has a GB rate of 45.7. He is expected to be a long-reliever and possible spot starter.

 

That concludes the 25-man roster. You will notice you didn't see Aroldis Chapman's name on it. That is because in all likelihood he will not beat out Bailey for a spot in the rotation and Bailey is out of options, where Chapman is not. If the Reds decide to continue with the plan of making him a starter look for Chapman to start the season at Triple-A Louisville. If they fold on the idea and keep him as a reliever, plan on sending LeCure to Louisville if he has options remaining.