Is Tony LaRussa Lying in Wait for Dusty Baker's Job in Cincinnati?

Cincinnati Reds General Manager Walt Jocketty has proved to be a man who loves familiarity.

Witness the fact that he worked in the Oakland Athletics organization for 14 years, the last nine of which was as Director of Baseball Administration. He left that job in October of 1994 and became the new GM of the St. Louis Cardinals.

After a nine-year association of working with then Oakland Athletics Manager Tony LaRussa, he was instrumental in bringing the manager to St. Louis for the 1996 season. They worked there together for the rest of Jocketty's tenure which ended after the 2007 season when he was hired by the Cincinnati Reds.

There have been several acquisitions made by the Reds for some of Jocketty's employees from St. Louis, the most obvious of course being third baseman Scott Rolen. There have been others as well including Jim Edmonds, Miguel Cairo, Edgar Renteria, and the latest being outfielder Ryan Ludwick.

With the retirement of LaRussa following the Cards' winning of the World Series at the end of last year, it makes you wonder if Jocketty isn't thinking about bringing Tony back when manager Dusty Baker's contract expires after this season.

Baker had a successful 10-year run as manager of the San Francisco Giants which included his only pennant winning season of 2002. After that he managed the Chicago Cubs and now the Cincinnati Reds for four season each, with identical records - four games below .500.

Baker did turn the team around and surprised many by winning the National League Central Division title in 2010, their first playoff season in many years. He has had some good players with the Reds and many fans were devastated with their dismal finish in the 2011 campaign.

He has had the talent to work with and has been criticized widely for his personnel deployment. He has shown to have a penchant for playing seasoned veterans over younger players even though the statistics didn't warrant it. He has also been charged by many for ruining the careers of then Cubs' pitchers Mark Pryor and Kerry Wood by misusing their talent.

Does this mean that LaRussa could be looming in the Reds future? I don't know, but I wouldn't bet on Baker being back next year even if the Reds would win the World Series.

With Baker out of the picture and LaRussa doing time in the rocking chair, I would think you might see him preparing for a spring training in Goodyear next season.

What is your take on this?

Chris Heisey or Drew Stubbs: Who Is Better in CF for the Cincinnati Reds?

Photo courtesy of Associated Press

For the better part of two seasons the Reds' faithful have been arguing over Chris Heisey's birthright of left field. I, too have participated in such conversations. We have talked about he and Jonny Gomes, Fred Lewis, Todd Frazier, Dave Sappelt, Yonder Alonso, and let me think, yeah I think that covers it.

While we have argued the pros and cons of Heisey's future as the Reds left fielder, we have watched the center fielder ring up the third-highest one season strikeout number of all times.

Drew Stubbs is the starting point for many fan conversations himself. The 6' 4" gazelle with his blinding speed and seemingly unlimited range in the outfield, is offensively a Dave Kingman wannabe. He has already surpassed him in terms of strikeouts, but hasn't risen to the expected level of power yet.

Back to the Heisey-Stubbs comparison, let us start at the dish. Their career batting averages are both pitiful and are within three points of each other, Heisey ahead in that race with a .254 average.

Stubbs leads in OBP at .325 to .316,  again, both very close.

Stubbs has only been used as a center fielder while Heisey has played all three outfield positions. There is method to my madness for bringing this up.

Stubbs can't blame his positioning on his dismal average and strikeout rate. Heisey has some room to use as leverage here. In both corner positions, he is batting below the Mendoza line and only has six home runs in left field and three in right field.

While playing center field however he blossoms into a good, not decent, good offensive machine. In center field he has a career line of .333/.396/.626/1.022 with 11 HR and 23 RBI in only 39 games. You may say that is a small sampling, but I say that is going at nearly a 45 HR rate for a season.

Why am I saying all of this? Perhaps Heisey is cut out to be a center fielder and not a corner man. Let's face it, when he plays in the middle, you are not giving up a considerable amount defensively.

As you may or may not know, I am not 100 percent sold on sabermetrics. However, a cursory look in that direction for the 2011 season shows us that in center field Heisey had a UZR of -1.5 while surprisingly Stubbs was worse at -2.5. Obviously in that particular metric, both are underwater in terms of what normalcy should be.

If you glance at their range, Heisey wins in the RngR category as well in center field. And again, both are sub par.

If defense is the only thing keeping Heisey from starting in center field, I would like to direct you to 1951 when Ralph Kiner led the National League in homers yet the Pirates lost 112 games. When Kiner asked for more money, Branch Rickey told him, "We finished last with you, we can finish last without you."

So, what good does it do to trot the fastest man in the National League out every day when his strikeout rate is obscene and his power performance is lacking?

What is my suggestion? One of two avenues, either move Heisey to center field and start Stubbs in left or bench him and start Ryan Ludwick in left instead.

Stubbs' speed is diminished, if not negated by his anemic OBP and failure as a bunter. Most speedsters can lay down a pretty good bunt. Stubbs looks like a American League middle reliever trying to bunt, or a deer caught in someone's headlights.

There you have it, the left field quandary can now end, insofar as Heisey is concerned.

Your thoughts?

Jay Bruce: How Good Is the Cincinnati Reds' Outfielder Going To Be?

All Cincinnati Reds fans love Jay Bruce. In fact, most of us tend to view the young man with rose-colored glasses. I know I do.

When I watch the powerful left-hander walk completely out of the batter's circle after every pitch, I know that the next pitch will be delivered into the right field seats. Of course as you know, that doesn't happen as frequently as we would like.

Some people called him a young Mickey Mantle. Don't laugh, but it is stretching it a bit. Mantle was as fast as a deer and played like he thought he would die at 40, which is what he really did fear.

Neither men put fear into the catcher's heart as far as swiping bases is concerned. Mantle won one Gold Glove in 1962 and Bruce will win his first this year (2012).

What does Bruce have in common with the great Hall of Famer? Other than being born a state apart from one another, not a whole lot.

Bruce is immensely bigger than Bruce, but that can be said about most of the players today in comparison with the players from the 1960's (look up this article I wrote two years ago).

As I said about the speed, if you were scaling them from 1-10, Mantle would have been the 10 in his prime, and Bruce would probably be about a seven.

The only place I can see the rationale of the comparison is in power. After the first four years of playing in MLB, Mantle at hit 84 HR and averaged 27 per year on a 162 game schedule. Bruce, on the other hand hit 100, while averaging 32 with that same metric.

Mantle isn't the only prolific home-run hitter that Bruce has bettered at this stage of his career. Barry Bonds had hit only 84 in his first four years, while averaging only 25 dingers a year.

In isolated power stats (ISO) at the age of 22, Bruce had the better of both of the sluggers , but lost a little ground after that.

But his fast track to 100 home runs is what is really exciting when using history as a backdrop. Watch this!

It took Bruce 513 games to whack home run number 100. The disputed HR king of all time, Barry Bonds took 640 games to achieve this feat. Mantle did it in 577 games and the real HR King of all times, Henry Aaron did it in 544. The man he dethroned, Babe Ruth took 531 games to do it.

That, my friends is some pretty elite company, wouldn't you agree?

Now I am not saying that Bruce is going to hit 700 HR, or even 600 for that matter. The point is, he is off to one of the best starts ever at hitting home runs.

There is plenty of work to be done. His strikeout rate is much too high. If he can cut down on those, you will see more balls flying out of the park.

He had such a terrific start when he came up in 2008. In fact he was in his 15th game before his average dropped below .400.

Bruce is a streak hitter and can really set the league on fire when he gets hot.  In May of 2011 Bruce was the National League Player of the Month by putting up a line like this: .342/.402/.739/1.140 with 12 HR and 33 RBI. That is what I call a streak.

I may be approaching this from a bias slant, but I believe that he is one of the most dangerous hitters in all of baseball.

What is your take on him?

Cincinnati Reds: What To Do With Paul Janish Now That Wilson Valdez Is On Board?

 

With the off-season signing of utility man Wilson Valdez, and last year's stellar rookie performance by Zack Cozart, has the light just dimmed on the career of Paul Janish?

Janish was the shortstop-to-be prior to the signing last winter of Edgar Renteria. After a respectable year at the plate in 2010, it looked like he was preparing to free himself from the "slick fielding, no hitting" moniker.

The shortstop position has been a proud tradition for Cincinnati fans. We went from Leo "Chico" Cardenas in the sixties and seventies, straight into Davey Concepcion and the Big Red Machine, until 1987 when he handed the reins over to Hall of Famer Barry Larkin. His last year was 2004.

That is not a bad track record, my good readers. Three shortstops in 42 years. Since then we have gone through Felipe Lopez, Alex Gonzalez, Jeff Keppinger, Orlando Cabrera and Renteria.

Janish was the understudy to Gonzalez, Keppinger and Cabreara and looked ready for a starting job during the winter of 2010-11.

With Renteria's arrival and manager Dusty Baker's predilection to play washed-up veterans over younger up-starts, it was not to be. He shared the position with Renteria and had a dismal season at the dish, offering up a slash line of .214/.259/.262/.521.

His melancholy hitting earned him a spot on the Louisville Bats roster for 13 games in which he batted .256.

Cozart was brought up from Louisville on July 7 and stayed for 11 games until he experienced a season-ending injury. He had very good numbers on such a small sampling. He hit .324/.324/.486/.811 with 2 HR in only 37 AB.

Janish saw his starting role and the job for which he had been auditioning for several years go down the drain. Everyone knew, I assume he did too, that Cozart had popped up and simply stole his job after only 11 games.

To add insult to injury, the Reds sent Jeremy Horst to Philadelphia for Valdez. I know Janish will have the opportunity to win the job at Goodyear, but come on, who believes he will?

Valdez is a slick fielder who has only two years experience on Janish (sure seems like more). But what he does bring to the table is the fact that he has played on two playoff teams and will surely win the favor of Baker right out of the box.

I may have counted wrong, but I believe Janish has one option (maybe 2) left, so look for him to be starting at Louisville on opening day.

Valdez has no options, so unless Cozart breaks a leg, or ends up like Steve Sax and can't throw to first base, he will be with the Reds on opening day at Great American Ball Park.

I do not intend to discredit or disrespect Janish in any way. He has played hard, been treated like a red-headed step child, and still remained positive. The Reds had just signed him to a one-year $850K contract prior to signing Valdez.

Janish no longer has baby fat, as he is now 29 and his career looks like it is on the downhill drag. I wish nothing but the best for the young man, but I have him on the same petrie dish as Todd Frazier right now. Too old to start over, and too much time invested to give it up.

What do you think?

MLB Trade Rumors: A Homer Bailey Trade to Make Room for Roy Oswalt on Reds?

Here we are with just a few weeks until pitchers and catchers report to camp and Roy Oswalt is a man without a team.

Cincinnati Enquirer writer John Fay reported that the Reds are one of the teams Oswalt is currently considering. Fay also said  that neither the Texas Rangers or the St. Louis Cardinals have the money to close the deal. If he doesn't sign with one of them, GM Walt Jocketty said, “We’d take another look at it.”

The Reds have practically broken the bank this winter and will apparently have to move some money around and move somebody to make room for the former Reds-killer.

What money and what player you ask? According to Fay,  Homer Bailey is the only one of the six pitchers vying for a spot in the rotation who is able to be traded, makes enough money, and unfortunately for him, is out of options.

Why all the fuss for a former ace who has landed on hard times? Oswalt is the king of the hill when it comes to beating the Reds. Over his 11-year career he has had his way with them. He currently stands at 23-3 with a 2. 81 ERA. For his career he is 159-93 with a 3.21 ERA, 7.3/9 K and 2.1/9 BB, with a 47.3 GB%.

Oswalt, 34 is a two-time 20-game winner and has finished in the top five in Cy Young voting five times. True, he isn't as good as he once was, but I believe he is as good once as he ever was. If you are troubled following that logic I simply mean that he is as apt to pitch a gem as anybody in the league.

Now look at Bailey. He is probably the oldest 25-year old in the major leagues. Wrapped in potential, Bailey has not lived up to the hype that surrounded his early years. Five years in and he only has 25 wins and a bulky 4.89 ERA, 7/9 K, 3.5/9 BB and a 41.9 GB%.

I have no clue where Bailey could end up, but if the Reds are willing to part ways with the Christian Bale look-alike for Oswalt, they are seriously all in for a title run.

Another important question: Where would Oswalt fit into the Reds rotation? You tell me.

Cincinnati Reds' Todd Frazier: Where Will He Be On Opening Day?

Photo Courtesy of ESPN

What does the future hold for Todd Frazier? He will soon be 26, and has already done five seasons in the minor leagues, so it is not too soon to discuss whether he will have a productive career in MLB.

A player with his versatility is always a needed commodity. He started out playing shortstop for the Billings Mustangs in 2007. Since then he has played the entire infield along with left field.

Frazier started the 2011 season with the Louisville Bats and was called up for one game near the end of May. On July 22 he was called back to Cincinnati when Scott Rolen went down with what would be a season-ending injury.

He was used all over the place last year, but he was considered by most a third baseman. That leads me to the crux of this article.

With Rolen apparently ready to reclaim the hot corner, is there room for Frazier on the Reds 25-man roster?

A brief look at the depth chart for the Reds on MLB.com shows that he is listed as the backup for Rolen at 3B. He is listed ahead of Juan Francisco and veteran Miguel Cairo. He is also listed as the backup to Chris Heisey in LF. Recently acquired Ryan Ludwick doesn't appear on the chart, however you can bet that barring a horrendous spring training, Ludwick will be on the opening day lineup card.

Prior to last season Francisco seemed to be the heir apparent to Rolen's throne at third base. His crushing power seems to be his redeeming quality. So, where is the love for Francisco now?

Again, we fall back to versatility. Francisco is a third baseman, and not a real good one at that. Judging by UZR he is a little better at the hot corner than Frazer, but they are both sub-standard, a dark contrast to the eight-time Gold Glove winner they are understudies to.

Allow me to show you my guess as to who the 25 will be that breaks camp in Arizona.

I will start with the pitchers. I see Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Bronson Arroyo, Aroldis Chapman, Homer Bailey, Ryan Massett, Sean Marshall, Bill Bray, Nick Masset, Jose Arredondo and Logan Ondrusek making the trip to Cincinnati. I know that is 12, but I believe that is what Dusty has been carrying most of the time.

For the position players I see Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Rolen, Zack Cozart, Ryan Ludwick, Drew Stubbs, Jay Bruce, Devin Mesoraco, Ryan Hanigan, Chris Heisey, Wilson Valdez, Miguel Cairo, and Francisco.

To me it is a tough call between Francisco and Frazier, the deciding factor for me being that most of the time they will be used in a pinch-hitting role. If Frazier were to be selected over Francisco there would be no pinch-hitters from the left side of the plate.

Does Frazier have a future within the Reds organization? I don't think so. I like him alot, but as I stated I just don't see him becoming a full-time starter on a club with Francisco and Cairo.

What are your thoughts?